Following strong start to the season, Colorado’s snowpack risks dropping below normal if incoming storms don’t deliver 

An early season surge in Colorado’s snowpack has dramatically slowed amid a prolonged dry spell. If incoming storms over the next week don’t deliver, experts say snowpack levels could drop below normal. 

Snowpack is tracked by looking at the snow-water equivalent, a measurement that shows how much liquid water is held within the state’s snowfields. 

Following its progress through the winter and spring helps provide insight into the strength of the season’s runoff and what it means for the health of the state’s reservoirs and drought conditions. 

---

---

“It means having a good water supply for the year or several years. … Secondly, it can be a measure of how prone we are for wildfires the following year,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Barjenbruch. “If we have a poor snowpack, that’s likely going to add more stress for trees and soil as we head into the summer.”

Snowpack levels have climbed for much of the early season, aided by a routine cycle of heavy storms that helped ski areas open terrain at an accelerated pace. That changed at the end of November when conditions dried and snowpack levels flatlined across the state. 

---

---

As of Thursday, Dec. 12, statewide snowpack stood at 105% of the 30-year median. In the Colorado Headwaters River Basin, which encompasses the bulk of the state’s ski resorts, levels were slightly higher at 108%, according to data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The region with the greatest snowpack remains the Arkansas River Basin in south-central Colorado, where levels stood at 144% and set a new seasonal record last month. 

Following a brief bump at the beginning of this week, snowpack levels could remain mostly flat through Christmas and could even begin to approach historical lows, according to a projection by OpenSnow founding meteorologist Joel Gratz.

“Our snowpack will stay at about the same number due to cool air and a low sun angle or perhaps rise slightly due to upcoming weak storms,” Gratz wrote in a Wednesday blog post. “… However, our snowpack compared to the median will continue to decline during the next two weeks as we see little new snowfall and the median continues to increase.”

On Sunday, snowfall is anticipated to resume during the late afternoon and into the evening and could again bring up to 5 inches of snow to northern and central mountain areas. 

Snowfall may return again on Wednesday, Dec. 18, though Gratz wrote he currently has “low confidence” in this forecast. 

“None of these three upcoming storms will bring significant snow, but little refreshes would be lovely,” he wrote, adding that the longer-range forecast between now and Christmas will not be favorable. 

“The 15-day snow forecast tells the story, with more snow along the West Coast and less snow here in Colorado through the Rockies,” he said. 

A 3-4 week outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows equal chances for above- or below-normal precipitation in Colorado through early January, with as much as a 60% chance for above-normal temperatures. 

Barjenbruch said it’s common for the state to see dry periods throughout the winter, and it can take just one intense storm to bring snowpack levels back. 

The recent surges in snowpack levels have been encouraging and will likely prove critical in the state’s ability to weather occasional bouts of dryer conditions, he said. The state is roughly a quarter of the way through its snowpack season, with over 100 days to go until levels reach the historical peak in April. 

“The big storms are where you can really add on, say maybe an inch or two of water across the entire state’s snowpack, and that’s a huge benefit,” he said, adding January and February tend to bring some of the deepest snow storms to mountain regions. 

“Those are the ones that really help out with building the snowpack and keeping our water resources available for the following years,” he said.