A Western Slope election could determine whether Colorado Democrats reach a tier of power they haven’t had in 90 years
A mishmash of polling and analysis shows the massive district is likely a toss-up between the two candidates
Larry Robinson/The Daily Sentinel courtesy photo
A battle this November over a Colorado Senate district on the Western Slope that’s roughly the size of Massachusetts could tip state Democrats into a tier of legislative power they haven’t had since 1938.
A win for Republican Marc Catlin, a state representative from Montrose, would maintain a roadblock for Democrats, who control the state legislature. But a win for Democrat Cole Buerger, a Glenwood Springs business owner, could hand the party supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.
With two-thirds majorities in the House and Senate, Democrats could make strides to fundamentally change the Colorado Constitution, including the state’s tax, elections, and criminal justice systems.
They would also be able to override any vetoes from Gov. Jared Polis, hindering one of his key negotiating chips. He is a Democrat, but he’s pushed back on state lawmakers’ most progressive policies.
While it would still be difficult to convince enough of the members of both caucuses to actually use those options, the expanded margins would undoubtedly have an effect.
“It’s more of a psychological impact,” said outgoing Senate President Steve Fenberg, a Boulder Democrat. “It makes it less likely that Democrats will lose a majority anytime soon … I think then maybe people are more willing to take politically risky votes.”
It’s far from guaranteed that Democrats will gain both supermajorities, but the possibility has seemed tantalizingly close for progressives over the past two years. House Democrats already have a supermajority and will be defending it in November. Senate Democrats, with their 23-12 majority, are only one seat away.
“I fight for as big of majorities as we can in every election,” said Shad Murib, the chair of the state Democratic Party. “Whether it’s done with the majority or supermajority doesn’t matter to me because I know that we’re gonna be able to get big things done.”
A lingering question
Senate District 5 is one of five competitive Senate seats up for grabs in November, but it’s the one Democrats feel is most likely where they’ll win or lose their coveted supermajority. Of the five, Democrats are defending two seats, and Republicans are defending three.
Democrats need to win in at least three of the districts to gain a supermajority. They feel good about their chances in two of them. Senate District 5 is a question mark, though.
The district is currently represented by Republican Perry Will of New Castle, but he was appointed to the position by a vacancy committee. He decided not to try for re-election in the competitive district and is instead running to be a Garfield County commissioner.
There hasn’t been an election in the district since new boundaries were drawn through the state’s 2021 redistricting process. Nonpartisan analysts initially scored the district as Republican-leaning by a smidge, but it’s been years since that assessment. A mishmash of polling and election results now paint a confusing picture of what could happen in November.
“We haven’t seen this district perform, so everybody’s mathematical calculation is a little bit different,” said Senate Minority Leader Paul Lundeen, a Monument Republican. “I would say it seems like it’s in the middle, but we don’t have precise metrics on that.”
‘Whoever goes center in Garfield’
Senate District 5 is geographically enormous, stretching from the Interstate 70 corridor in Garfield County through the Roaring Fork Valley into Hinsdale County, near the southern border of the state. It includes the entirety of Pitkin, Gunnison, and Hinsdale counties and portions of Delta, Montrose, Garfield, and Eagle counties.
Registered Republicans make up 28% of the district’s electorate while Democrats make up 20%. The largest group, however, is unaffiliated voters, at a whopping 50%.
The race is likely to be hardest fought in Garfield County, a once ruby-red county that has turned a purple hue in recent election cycles. While most voters there are unaffiliated, registered Democrats have almost overtaken registered Republicans, according to data from the secretary of state. In 2021, Republicans outpaced Democrats by roughly 1,200 registered voters, but as of this month, the gap has shrunk to 380.
“Whoever goes to the center in Garfield is who is going to win,” said Tim Foster, a former Republican Majority Leader for the Colorado House from Grand Junction. “If you tack left or tack too hard right, you’re gonna lose ground in Garfield.”
In 2022, Will, who was running for re-election as a state representative at the time, won the county by about 9%. That same year, Polis, a Democrat, won the county by 12%.
The county, which was once the home of Republican U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert, favored President Joe Biden by 2% in 2020.
Voters in Pitkin, Gunnison, and Eagle counties consistently vote for Democrats while Delta, Montrose, and Hinsdale county generally vote for Republicans.
A grim picture for Republicans
When the Senate District 5 boundaries were drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission in 2021, an analysis showed voters there favored Cory Gardner by 3% in the 2020 U.S. Senate election.
But a precinct-level study of the 2022 results, first reported by The Colorado Sun, shows a much less rosy picture for Republicans. In 2022, Polis won the district by 10%, while fellow Democrats U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser won the district by 6% and 3%, respectively, according to the analysis.
Another factor that may be working in Buerger’s favor is the lack of support from the state Republican Party in elections this year. Republican candidates have complained they’re largely going it alone, as the party’s ongoing infighting heads to the courts next month.
The party’s resources, usually used to bolster competitive seats like Catlin’s, are few and far between. Some of the party’s coffers were used to help Dave Williams, the contested chair of the party, in an unsuccessful bid for Congress.
The state party sent out an email calling Senate District 5 “one of its most critical races” and asking for donations to Catlin’s campaign. The email also criticized Buerger, saying he touted the fact that he is gay in previous campaigns.
“We are tired of identity politics and DEI-type platforms,” according to the email.
Catlin said he didn’t ask the party to send the email and that he told Buerger he didn’t agree with it.
“This race is not about who you love. That’s really none of my business,” Catlin said. “I was sorry that happened.”
Experience versus a fresh perspective
The candidates have focused largely on affordability and water as primary issues in the district. Buerger wants to decrease healthcare costs and incentivize more construction of single-family homes and condominiums. Catlin wants to stave off attempts to remove water from the Western Slope and promote conservation efforts.
Catlin wants to expand on the work he’s already done as a legislator by staving off attempts to remove water from the Western Slope and promoting conservation efforts. While he supports the state helping fund community projects to build more workforce housing, he also wants to prioritize local control.
But their biggest clashes have come over their backgrounds. He has been a lawmaker since 2017 and has developed a reputation as a bipartisan candidate who works well with the other members of the Western Slope delegation, particularly on water policy.
While serving in the House this year, he voted “yes” on more than half the bills that became laws in the Democrat-controlled General Assembly. That’s more than almost every other Republican in the chamber. In 2021, he was also appointed by former Speaker of the House Alec Garnett to serve as the vice chair of the House Agriculture, Water & Natural Resources Committee — an unprecedented role for a member of the minority party.
In reappointing him to the position, Speaker Julie McCluskie, D-Dillon, said Catlin has “a proven record of putting people over politics.”
Buerger said he doesn’t believe Catlin is truly bipartisan.
“Republicans are in such a small minority that they can get nothing done without Democratic partnership, so that bipartisanship is out of necessity,” he said. “I don’t know that it’s necessarily out of desire.”
Catlin’s supporters have criticized Buerger for his previous attempts to get elected to office. Buerger ran unsuccessfully in primaries for both Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District and House District 57.
When asked what he wants voters to know about his opponent, Catlin said the residents he’s heard from have asked him to “stay positive” but that “experience does matter.”
“It takes a good amount of experience to be effective right away,” he said.
Buerger said he would be able to bring a fresh perspective to the Capitol and “play offense” rather than the defensive position Catlin would be in, as a member of the minority and possibly superminority.
“If (a supermajority) does happen, I will be a very independent voice focused very much on the needs of rural Colorado communities,” Buerger said, “and not using it to enact an ideological wish list from the Front Range.”
He said for issues like land use, local control and water he could be a backstop on some of the Front Range lawmakers’ bill proposals.
Campaign finance and endorsements
Democratic legislators from the Western Slope have been somewhat quiet about the race. While Rep. Meghan Lukens, D-Steamboat Springs, has attended campaign events with Buerger and Sen. Dylan Roberts, D-Frisco, and donated $450 to his campaign, neither have come out with full-throated endorsements.
According to the latest round of campaign finance reports filed Sept. 16 with the Secretary of State, Buerger and Catlin had both received about the same in contributions, more than $80,000 each. Buerger has spent about $34,000 so far and has $48,000 remaining in the bank, and Catlin has spent about $19,000 with $64,000 remaining.
Catlin has picked up endorsements from the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association, the Colorado Association of Homebuilders, and the Colorado Petroleum Association.
Buerger has endorsements from several state Democrats, mayors, and commissioners in the district along with the Colorado Education Association, the abortion advocacy group Cobalt, and the state employee union Colorado WINS.
Ballots will begin to be sent out Oct. 11, and Election Day is Nov. 5.
A Western Slope election could determine whether Colorado Democrats reach a tier of power they haven’t had in 90 years
A win for Republican Marc Catlin, a state representative from Montrose, would maintain a roadblock for Democrats, who control the state legislature. But a win for Democrat Cole Buerger, a Glenwood Springs business owner, could hand the party supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly.
